太湖流域强风、暴雨、高潮、洪水“四碰头”典型台风暴雨洪水过程特性分析
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1:太湖流域管理局水文局(信息中心),上海 200434 ;2:新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,乌鲁木齐 830052

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国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2340221)资助


Characteristic analysis on rainstorm and flood process during typical typhoons with heavy wind, strong storm, high tide and serious flood colliding in the Taihu Basin
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1:Bureau of Hydrology (Information Center) of Taihu Basin Authority, Shanghai 200434 ,P.R.China ;2:College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052 ,P.R.China

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    摘要:

    “四碰头”台风对太湖流域的影响已成为防灾减灾体系中关注的热点,但其带来的强风、暴雨、高潮、洪水对流域防洪安全产生的风险影响尚不明确。开展“四碰头”典型台风的暴雨洪水运动分析对保障流域水安全具有重要意义。本文以1990年以来“菲特”和“烟花”两个“四碰头”典型台风为样本,以其他“二碰头”“三碰头”台风为参照,基于水文、工情等实测资料,对比分析“四碰头”台风对流域防洪安全的影响。结果表明:(1)“四碰头”台风均造成极端降雨,总量大、范围广,造成的流域平均降雨量较“二碰头”“三碰头”台风均值偏高70%以上,高出部分与2009年“莫拉克”台风造成的流域降雨量基本持平。(2)太湖水位涨幅分别位列1949年以来第2、3位,特别是“烟花”台风期间太湖发生编号洪水,太湖湖面最大倾斜1.00 m以上,地区河网33站最高水(潮)位打破历史极值,高水位持续时间长,严重威胁流域区域防洪安全。(3)太湖流域在“菲特”时期以充分调蓄为主,随后流域骨干工程排水能力显著增强,在“烟花”时期洪水运动格局转变为蓄泄兼筹,蓄泄比由1∶0.6转变为1∶1.1,外排比重提升。(4)在暴雨期间,两场台风流域排水量受天文大潮顶托的制约较为明显,降雨停止并渡过天文大潮后,骨干工程排水量明显增加,以北排长江、东出黄浦江水量增加更为明显。(5)虽然流域骨干工程排水能力显著增强,但在面对“四碰头”台风以及区域洪涝灾害风险转移的情况下,流域排洪能力仍需进一步提升。研究成果可为今后科学防御太湖流域“四碰头”台风提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The impact of “four colliding” typhoons involving a combination of heavy wind, strong storm, high tide and serious flood colliding has become the focus of attention in the disaster prevention and reduction system in the Taihu Basin. However, the impact of the wind, storm, tide and flood on the safety of flood prevention is still unclear. It is important to analyze the rainstorms, floods and their movement caused by the typical “four colliding” typhoons. This study uses the typhoons “Fitow” and “In-Fa” since 1990 as examples and other typhoons with two or three colliding events as references. Based on hydrological and engineering data, the impact of “four colliding” typhoons is compared. The results showed that: (1) All of the “four colliding” typhoons caused extreme rainfall, with a large total amount and wide range. This resulted in rainfall that was more than 70% higher than that caused by two or three colliding typhoons. This was essentially the same as the rainfall caused by typhoon “Morakot” in 2009. (2) The water levels in Lake Taihu have risen to 2nd and 3rd place respectively since 1949. In particular, typhoon “In-Fa” caused numerous floods, with the maximum water level in Lake Taihu rising by more than 1.00 m. The highest water levels recorded at 33 sites in the river network broke historical records, and the high water levels persisted for an extended period, posing a significant threat to regional flood prevention efforts. (3) Storage dominated during “Fitow”, after which the drainage capacity of the backbone projects was significantly enhanced. During “In-Fa”, the flood movement pattern changed to include both storage and drainage. The storage-to-drainage ratio changed from 1∶0.6 to 1∶1.1 and the proportion of drainage increased. (4) During the rainstorms caused by the two typhoons, drainage was obviously restricted by the astronomical spring tide. Once the rainfall had stopped and the spring tide had passed, the drainage capacity of the backbone projects increased significantly, particularly in the Yangtze River to the north and the Huangpu River to the east. (5) Although the drainage capacity of the backbone projects has been significantly strengthened, further improvement is needed in the event of a “four colliding” typhoon or the transfer of regional flood disaster risks. These research results could inform the scientific defence against the ‘four colliding’ typhoons in the Taihu Basin in future.

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姜悦美,甘月云,郭晨宇,刘敏.太湖流域强风、暴雨、高潮、洪水“四碰头”典型台风暴雨洪水过程特性分析.湖泊科学,2026,38(1):317-327. Jiang Yuemei, Gan Yueyun, Guo Chenyu, Liu Min. Characteristic analysis on rainstorm and flood process during typical typhoons with heavy wind, strong storm, high tide and serious flood colliding in the Taihu Basin. Journal of Lake Sciences,2026,38(1):317-327. DOI:10.18307/2026.0142

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-02
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