鄱阳湖洪泛系统水文干旱对水文连通性的影响
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1:西南大学地理科学学院,重庆 400715 ;2:中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 211135 ;3:重庆市松树桥中学校,重庆 401147

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国家自然科学基金项目(42071028)、国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204102)和重庆市雏鹰计划项目(CY240227)联合资助


Impact of hydrological drought on hydrological connectivity in the Lake Poyang floodplain system
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1:School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715 , P.R.China ;2:Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135 , P.R.China ;3:Chongqing Songshuqiao Middle School, Chongqing 401147 , P.R.China

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    摘要:

    洪泛湖泊水文干旱及其对水文连通性的影响对当地水资源管理和湿地生态保护至关重要。基于ESTARFM模型重构的鄱阳湖区2000-2023年高时空分辨率淹水数据集,采用标准化淹水面积指数定量表征鄱阳湖洪泛系统水文干旱,并结合地统计水文连通性函数,分析了鄱阳湖区水文干旱和水文连通性的演变特征;在此基础上,采用STL时间序列分解及多元线性函数拟合法,明确了水文连通性对水文干旱变化的响应规律。研究表明,鄱阳湖区水文干旱的年内和年际变化较为复杂,干旱事件的发生频率较高,且整体上呈现旱情加重趋势。鄱阳湖区南北方向水文连通性强于东西方向水文连通性,近年来湖区水文连通性呈现出波动下降趋势,与湖区水文干旱强度变化有关。定量分析发现,随着水文干旱程度的增强,鄱阳湖区水文连通性呈现下降趋势。其中,东西方向上,鄱阳湖区轻旱、中旱、重旱、极旱较无旱情境下年均水文连通性分别降低45.2%、50.0%、54.6%和70.7%;南北方向上,年均水文连通性分别降低32.1%、35.6%、39.0%和50.7%。鄱阳湖区水文干旱引起的水文连通性变化将对湿地植被的生长分布产生重要影响,研究结果可为极端水情下的湖泊生态系统管理实践提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Scientific research on hydrological drought in lake-floodplains and its impact on hydrological connectivity is of great significance for the management of local water resources and the protection of wetland ecosystems. This study utilized the ESTARFM model (enhanced spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model) to reconstruct high spatiotemporal resolution inundation datasets from 2000 to 2023. The resulting datasets were then employed to quantitatively characterize hydrological drought and hydrological connectivity in Lake Poyang. To this end, the standardized inundation area index and the geostatistical hydrological connectivity function were utilized to analyze the evolution characteristics of the aforementioned phenomena. On this basis, the response of hydrological connectivity to hydrological drought was further clarified by employing the methods of STL (seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess) time series decomposition and multivariate linear fitting function. The findings indicated that the hydrological drought in Lake Poyang exhibited both annual and interannual variations, characterized by a high frequency of occurrence and an escalating drought trend. The hydrological connectivity in the north-south direction of the Lake Poyang is stronger than that in the east-west direction. In recent years, the hydrological connectivity of Lake Poyang has exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, which is associated with variations in the intensity of hydrological drought. Subsequent quantitative analysis revealed that with an increase in the degree of hydrological drought, hydrological connectivity in Lake Poyang demonstrated a downward trend. In the east-west direction, the annual average hydrological connectivity of light drought, medium drought, severe drought and extreme drought in the Lake Poyang can decrease by 45.2%, 50.0%, 54.6% and 70.7%, respectively, compared to a no drought scenario. In a similar fashion, in the north-south direction, the annual average hydrological connectivity can decrease by 32.1%, 35.6%, 39.0% and 50.7%, respectively. The alterations to hydrological connectivity occasioned by hydrological drought in the Lake Poyang area will have further consequences for the growth and distribution of wetland vegetation. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the management of lake ecosystems under extreme water conditions.

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岳恩馨,赵林,钱品瑜,刘意,李相虎,赵华琼,叶许春.鄱阳湖洪泛系统水文干旱对水文连通性的影响.湖泊科学,2026,38(1):353-366. Yue Enxin, Zhao Lin, Qian Pinyu, Liu Yi, Li Xianghu, Zhao Huaqiong, Ye Xuchun. Impact of hydrological drought on hydrological connectivity in the Lake Poyang floodplain system. Journal of Lake Sciences,2026,38(1):353-366. DOI:10.18307/2026.0145

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-02
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