2018-2023年滇池蓝藻水华暴发特征及藻情反弹成因
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1:昆明市滇池高原湖泊研究院,昆明 650228 ;2:滇池湖泊生态系统云南省野外科学观测研究站,昆明 650228 ;3:中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室,南京 211135

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云南省省市一体化专项(202202AH210006)和云南省科技厅人才与平台计划(202305AM340008)联合资助


Characteristics of cyanobacterial blooms and the causes of bloom resurgence in Lake Dianchi from 2018 to 2023
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1:Kunming Dianchi and Plateau Lakes Institute, Kunming 650228 , P.R.China ;2:Dianchi Lake Ecosystem Observation and Research Station of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650228 , P.R.China ;3: State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135 , P.R.China

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    摘要:

    经过多年的综合治理,滇池蓝藻水华的防控取得了显著的阶段性成效。自2018年以来,滇池蓝藻水华的暴发天数逐渐减少,水华面积也大幅下降。然而,2023年滇池藻情出现了反弹,引发了广泛关注。本研究基于2018-2023年滇池的MODIS卫星影像,结合水质、气象监测结果,系统分析了滇池藻情变化特征及其暴发机制。监测数据显示,2018-2023年滇池年水华发生率呈“V”型变化,2023年(87.0%)显著高于六年均值(69.3%);2022-2023年的平均水华面积较2018-2021年明显减小,2023年的平均水华面积(15.86 km2)比六年均值低65.3%,但较2022年回升11.4%。Spearman相关分析显示,月水华发生率、月平均水华面积均与月平均气温、月降雨量呈显著正相关,与月平均风速呈显著负相关;月平均藻密度与月平均总磷浓度呈显著正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,气温和风速是调控滇池蓝藻水华的关键气象因子,而总磷浓度对藻密度变化的解释力有限。在2018-2023年藻密度持续超过轻度水华阈值(1.0×107 cells/L)的背景下,2023年滇池藻情反弹主要受气象因子的协同调控。具体而言,非主藻期(1-5月、12月)13~20 ℃温度比例上升加快蓝藻复苏,主藻期(6-11月)<2 m/s低风速比例增加促进藻类上浮聚集,<13 ℃温度比例下降有利于蓝藻生长,可能共同促使了2023年水华发生率上升;而主藻期20~25 ℃高温比例显著上升加速蓝藻上浮,这可能是当年水华面积扩大的重要驱动因素。本研究的结果不仅为滇池蓝藻水华的日常防控和预测预警提供理论支撑,也为云南省其他高原湖泊的蓝藻水华治理提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Over the years, integrated remediation efforts in Lake Dianchi have yielded significant interim success in curbing cyanobacterial blooms. From 2018 onward, both the frequency and spatial extent of these blooms showed a consistent downward trend. However, a marked resurgence was observed in 2023, prompting renewed scientific and public concern. This study systematically investigates the variability and outbreak mechanisms of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi from 2018 to 2023, leveraging MODIS satellite imagery alongside integrated water quality and meteorological monitoring data. Analysis of the monitoring data reveals that the annual bloom frequency followed a “V”-shaped trajectory over the six-year period, with 2023 registering a notably high frequency of 87.0%, significantly exceeding the six-year average of 69.3%. In contrast, the average bloom area from 2022 to 2023 was substantially lower than that from 2018 to 2021. Specifically, the average bloom area in 2023 (15.86 km2) was 65.3% below the six-year mean, although it represented an 11.4% increase from 2022. Spearman correlation analysis demonstrated that both monthly bloom frequency and monthly average bloom area were significantly positively correlated with monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation, while showing a significant negative correlation with monthly average wind speed. Additionally, the monthly average cyanobacterial density exhibited a strong positive correlation with the monthly average total phosphorus concentration. Multivariate linear regression analysis highlighted air temperature and wind speed as the dominant meteorological drivers of bloom dynamics in Lake Dianchi. However, total phosphorus concentration had limited explanatory power regarding variations in algal density. Throughout the 2018-2023 period, cyanobacterial density consistently surpassed the mild bloom threshold (1.0×107 cells/L), suggesting that the 2023 resurgence was primarily driven by synergistic meteorological influences. During the non-bloom season (January-May and December), an increased proportion of temperatures between 13-20 ℃ accelerated cyanobacterial resurgence. During the bloom season (June-November), the increase in the proportion of low wind speeds (<2 m/s) promoted cyanobacterial surfacing and aggregation. A reduced proportion of temperatures below 13 ℃ favored cyanobacterial growth. A significant rise in the proportion of 20-25 ℃ temperatures during the bloom season likely enhanced cyanobacterial buoyancy, contributing to the broader bloom coverage observed in 2023. These findings offer valuable theoretical support for the daily prevention, prediction, and early warning systems for cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi. Furthermore, they provide a reference for bloom management in other plateau lakes across Yunnan Province.

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孟迪,罗菊花,鲁露,朱宇,王丽霞,黄立成,何锋,潘珉.2018-2023年滇池蓝藻水华暴发特征及藻情反弹成因.湖泊科学,2026,38(2):496-511. Meng Di, Luo Juhua, Lu Lu, Zhu Yu, Wang Lixia, Huang Licheng, He Feng, Pan Min. Characteristics of cyanobacterial blooms and the causes of bloom resurgence in Lake Dianchi from 2018 to 2023. Journal of Lake Sciences,2026,38(2):496-511. DOI:10.18307/2026.0211

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-05
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