1990-2021年洞庭湖流域地表水面积时空变化趋势及驱动因素
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1.湖南科技大学地球科学与空间信息工程学院;2.湖南省自然资源事务中心 洞庭湖区生态环境遥感监测湖南省重点实验室;3.洞庭湖区生态环境遥感监测湖南省重点实验室;4.西南大学地理科学学院

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国家自然科学(41002022);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(24A0326);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(LXBZZ2024293);湖南省大学生创新训练计划项目(湘教通191-3491);洞庭湖区生态环境遥感监测湖南省重点实验室开放课题(DTH Key Lab.2024-08)


Spatiotemporal Variation Trends and Driving Factors of Surface Water Area in Dongting Lake Basin,1990-2021
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1.School of Earth Sciences and Spatial Information Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan;2.Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Monitoring of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area,Hunan Center of Natural Resources Affairs;3.Changsha;4.Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Monitoring of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area Changsha;5.School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing

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    摘要:

    洞庭湖流域地表水资源在维护生态系统、保护生物多样性与调节气候方面具有重要作用,但易受气候变化与人类活动的影响。尽管对洞庭湖流域地表水动态面积变化已开展大量研究,但现有成果大多缺乏长时序全域分析,且驱动机制以定性描述为主,空间分析也局限于主湖区。基于此,本研究旨在揭示洞庭湖流域全域及各子流域地表水面积的时空演变规律,阐明气候因子与人类活动对地表水动态的贡献,研究子流域地表水分布重心迁移的规律。本文综合利用多源遥感卫星资料及JRC全球地表水数据集产品,通过M-K、Pettitt、Pearson检验以及重心分析模型等方法分析得到了洞庭湖流域地表水面积在1990-2021年期间的时空变化规律及主要驱动因素。研究结果表明:①近30年来,洞庭湖流域地表水面积呈增长趋势且以沅江水系最为显著,增长了420.07%,空间差异明显,时间上呈现 “快速扩张-波动缩减-恢复增长” 三阶段特征;②洞庭湖流域水面分布重心整体向西南方向迁移,波动幅度主要体现在东西向位移上,位移了19.56km,各子流域重心迁移与区域水利工程建设、生态修复的空间特征直接关联,反映了人类活动对地表水空间格局的重塑作用;③降水是引起洞庭湖流域地表水面积增加的主要气候因素,而水利工程建设、退耕还湖等人类工程调控与生态修复措施,显著改变了流域地表水的空间分布格局;④气候变化对洞庭湖流域地表水面积变化的贡献度大致为40%-55%,而水利工程建设、退耕还湖等人类工程调控与生态修复措施,不仅显著改变了流域地表水的空间分布格局,且贡献度达 45%-60%,成为主导驱动力。本研究将有助于了解洞庭湖流域地表水资源的长期变化规律,对于制定科学合理的生态系统保护和恢复措施具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    The surface water resources in the Dongting Lake Basin play an important role in maintaining ecosystems, protecting biodiversity, and regulating the climate, but they are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and human activities. Although extensive studies have been conducted on the dynamic changes in the surface water area of the Dongting Lake Basin, most of the existing research results lack long-term and whole-basin analyses. Moreover, the driving mechanisms are mainly based on qualitative descriptions, and spatial analyses are also limited to the main lake area. Based on this, this study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the surface water area in the entire Dongting Lake Basin and its sub-basins, clarify the contributions of climatic factors and human activities to the dynamics of surface water, and explore the migration patterns of the centroid of surface water distribution in the sub-basins. By comprehensively utilizing multi-source remote sensing satellite data and the JRC Global Surface Water Dataset products, and adopting methods such as the Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test, Pearson correlation test, and centroid analysis model, this study analyzes and obtains the spatiotemporal variation patterns and main driving factors of the surface water area in the Dongting Lake Basin from 1990 to 2021. The results show that:①Over the past 30 years, the surface water area of the Dongting Lake Basin has shown an increasing trend, with the Yuanjiang River system being the most significant and it has increased by 420.07%, showing obvious spatial differences, and presenting a three-stage characteristic of "rapid expansion - fluctuating reduction - recovery growth" in terms of time;②The centroid of the surface water distribution in the Dongting Lake Basin has shifted southwestward overall, and the fluctuation range is mainly reflected in the east-west displacement, with a displacement of 19.56 km. The centroid migration of each sub-basin is directly related to the spatial characteristics of regional water conservancy project construction and ecological restoration, reflecting the remodeling effect of human activities on the spatial pattern of surface water;③Precipitation is the main climatic factor causing the increase in the surface water area of the Dongting Lake Basin, while human engineering regulation and ecological restoration measures such as water conservancy project construction and "returning farmland to lakes" have significantly changed the spatial distribution pattern of surface water in the basin;④Climate change contributes approximately 40%-55% to the changes in the surface water area of the Dongting Lake Basin, while human engineering regulation and ecological restoration measures such as water conservancy project construction and "returning farmland to lakes" not only significantly change the spatial distribution pattern of surface water in the basin, but also have a contribution degree of 45%-60%, becoming the dominant driving force. This study will help understand the long-term variation patterns of surface water resources in the Dongting Lake Basin and is of great significance for formulating scientific and reasonable ecosystem protection and restoration measures.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-18
  • 录用日期:2025-10-22
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-18
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