多流域-多预见期下Stacking径流预测的适用性评价及影响因素分析
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1.杭州电子科技大学自动化学院(人工智能学院);2.中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院;3.兰州大学泛第三极环境中心

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国家自然科学基金项目(基础科学中心项目,面上项目)


Applicability evaluation and influencing factors analysis of Stacking-based runoff prediction under multiple basins and multiple lead times
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Affiliation:

1.School of Automation (School of Artificial Intelligence),Hangzhou Dianzi University;2.School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences;3.Center for the Pan-Third Pole Environment, Lanzhou University

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Basic Science Center Project, General Program)

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    摘要:

    Stacking作为一种先进的集成学习技术,是提升径流预测性能的重要手段。现有Stacking径流预测研究多聚焦于个别流域及少数预见期的准确性评价,缺乏针对在多流域与多预见期条件下Stacking径流预测的适用性评价及影响因素分析。本研究以支持向量回归(SVR)和随机森林(RF)作为个体学习器,以岭回归作为元学习器,构建了基于Stacking的径流预测模型。利用CAMELS数据集的200个流域,以1~7天为预见期,对Stacking径流预测的准确性、稳定性及适用性进行了评价,并分析了其预测效果与流域特征及个体学习器精度的相关性。结果表明:(1)Stacking在径流预测中的整体准确性和稳定性均高于个体学习器;(2)Stacking对美国大陆多数流域的径流预测精度具有提升作用,在降水量和气温较高的流域中提升效果更为显著,而在降水量和气温较低的流域中效果相对有限;(3)Stacking倾向于在个体学习器精度较低的流域提高预测精度,而在个体学习器精度较高的流域则难以显著提高预测精度。研究结果可为集成学习方法在水文预测领域的应用与推广提供技术参考。

    Abstract:

    As one of the most advanced ensemble learning technologies, Stacking is an important way to improve the performance of runoff prediction. The existing researches of Stacking-based runoff prediction mostly focus on the accuracy evaluation under few basins and few lead times. Applicability evaluation and influencing factors analysis under multiple basins and multiple lead times remains unexplored. In this study, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) were used as individual learners, and Ridge Regression was used as a meta-learner, and runoff prediction models based on Stacking were constructed. Taking 200 basins in CAMELS dataset as the study area, and taking 1~7 days as the lead times, the accuracy, stability and applicability of Stacking-based runoff prediction were systematically evaluated, and the correlation between the effectiveness of Stacking and the characteristics of basins and the accuracy of individual learners were analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) The overall accuracy and stability of Stacking are higher than those of the individual learners. (2) Stacking can improve the accuracy of runoff prediction in most basins in the continental United States. The improvement effect is more significant in the basins with heavy precipitation and high temperature, but the effect is relatively limited in the basins with light precipitation and low temperature. (3) Stacking tends to improve prediction accuracy in the basins with low accuracy of the individual learners, but it is difficult to improve the prediction accuracy in the basins with high accuracy of the individual learners. This study can provide a reference for the application of Stacking in runoff prediction.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-01
  • 录用日期:2026-04-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-20
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