极端气候事件驱动下洪泽湖蓝藻水华的加剧与归因
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1.南京信息工程大学&中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所;2.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所;3.中国科学院大学&中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所;4.中国科学院大学南京学院&中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所;5.南京信息工程大学

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江苏省基础研究计划(BK20231516);国家自然科学(32501447)。


Intensification and Drivers of Cyanobacterial Blooms in Lake Hongze under Extreme Climate Events
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Nanjing College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences&State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology

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    摘要:

    在全球气候变化背景下,极端气候事件频次与强度的增强加剧了浅水富营养化湖泊中蓝藻水华的暴发与扩张,对湖泊生态安全和供水保障构成严重威胁。然而,极端气候事件如何驱动蓝藻水华的长期动态演变,其主导因子与机制仍不明确。本研究以洪泽湖为对象,基于64年气象监测数据的Mann-Kendall趋势分析表明,该流域极端高温事件的发生频率以每十年2%的速率显著上升,自1991年以来累积持续天数每十年增加5.33天,发生频次每十年增加2次;同时,极端降水强度(SDII)每十年增加0.38 mm,极端强降水总量(R99p)每十年增加6.88 mm。结合2003-2020年的遥感影像分析发现,洪泽湖蓝藻水华的发生率(BO)上升1.15%,最大藻华面积(MBE)扩大154.69 km2,首次出现时间(Onset)提前24.56天,潜在持续期(POP)平均延长27.20天。进一步基于SHAP方法的归因分析表明,BO与MBE是对极端气候事件响应最为敏感的藻华指标,其中极端高温事件的平均强度起主导作用,其持续增强预计将进一步导致水华提前发生与范围扩大。值得注意的是,当高温超过一定阈值时,藻类生长可能受到热胁迫抑制,表明极端高温事件在藻华演变中具有“促进-限制”双重作用。本研究揭示了极端气候驱动下蓝藻水华的响应机制与阈值行为,为湖泊水华风险预警与适应性流域管理提供了理论依据与科学支持。

    Abstract:

    As the climate change, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have intensified the outbreaks and expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in shallow eutrophic lakes, posing severe threats to lake ecosystem security and water supply safety. However, how extreme climate events drive the long-term dynamics of cyanobacterial blooms and what the dominant factors and mechanisms are remain unclear. Taking Lake Hongze as a case study, a Mann-Kendall trend analysis based on 64 years of meteorological observations revealed that the frequency of extreme high-temperature events has increased significantly at a rate of 2% per decade. Since 1991, the cumulative duration of such events has risen by 5.33 days per decade, and their occurrence frequency has increased by 2 events per decade. Meanwhile, the intensity of extreme precipitation (SDII) and the total amount of very heavy precipitation (R99p) increased by 0.38 mm and 6.88 mm per decade, respectively. Based on remote-sensing observations from 2003 to 2020, the bloom occurrence rate (BO) in Lake Hongze increased by 1.15%, while the maximum bloom extent (MBE) expanded by 154.69 km2. The bloom onset advanced by 24.56 days, and the potential bloom duration (POP) extended by an average of 27.20 days. Further attribution analysis using the SHAP method indicated that BO and MBE were the most sensitive bloom indicators in response to extreme climate events, with the mean intensity of extreme heat events playing a dominant role. The continued intensification of extreme heat events is expected to further advance bloom onset and expand bloom extent. Notably, when temperatures exceed a certain threshold, algal growth may be inhibited due to thermal stress, suggesting a dual “ promoting-inhibiting” effect of extreme heat events on bloom dynamics. This study elucidates the response mechanisms and threshold behaviors of cyanobacterial blooms under extreme climate forcing, providing a theoretical foundation and scientific support for early warning of bloom risks and adaptive watershed management.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-03
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-20
  • 录用日期:2026-02-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-09
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