融合并行时空注意力机制的LSTM模型预测黄河潼关含沙量
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1.黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院;2.水利部小浪底水利枢纽管理中心

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国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209203、2023YFC3209305);河南省自然科学基金(252300423358)黄河水利科学研究院基本业务项目(HKY-JBYW-2024-12、HKY-YF-2024-05);数字孪生小浪底项目(XLDYK22013)


Research on Sediment Concentration Prediction at the Tongguan Section of the Yellow River Based on Parallel Spatio-temporal Attention Mechanism
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Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research

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    摘要:

    含沙量过程的准确预测对于水库防汛调度及泥沙管理具有关键作用。以黄河中下游潼关站为研究对象,构建了融合并行时空注意力机制的长短期记忆网络模型(Parallel Spatio-Temporal Attention LSTM, PSTA-LSTM)。模型在结构上集成并行时空注意力模块,同时捕捉含沙量时间序列中的长期时间依赖性和不同流域站点间的空间关联性;在隐层激活阶段引入改进的自适应分段线性函数(Smooth-ReLU, SReLU),提升模型在含沙量快速变化条件下及峰值的特征表达能力。基于2000–2024年实测水沙数据进行实验验证,结果显示,相较于传统串行LSTM结构,引入并行时空注意力模块可使整体均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)下降约25.6%,沙峰预测精度PRE提升约12.7%;引入SReLU激活函数显著提升了沙峰的预测精度,相较于传统的ReLU和softplus,SReLU能够更有效地处理沙峰值,纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, NSE)提升超9%。将样本根据水沙类型划分为丰水丰沙、中水中沙、枯水低沙、丰水低沙和枯水丰沙五类,并在不同水沙条件下以及汛期与非汛期进行含沙量预测,验证了按水沙类型分类训练可进一步提高预测精度,RMSE下降约15.7%,NSE达到80%以上;汛期与非汛期对比显示,PSTA-LSTM在在含沙量峰值明显且短时变化幅度较大的阶段具有更强的响应能力。

    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of sediment concentration processes is crucial for effective reservoir flood regulation, sediment management, and ecological conservation in river basins with significant sediment loads, such as the Yellow River. The ability to predict sediment concentrations accurately is key to mitigating the negative impacts of sedimentation in reservoirs, optimizing flood control, and ensuring the safety of infrastructure and water quality management. In this study, we focus on the sediment concentration process at the Tongguan Hydrological Station, which is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. The Yellow River, known for its high sediment load, plays a vital role in the sediment transport dynamics that influence the river"s water quality and sedimentation patterns. The Tongguan station is a critical monitoring point in the Yellow River basin because it marks the confluence of the Yellow River mainstream with major tributaries such as the Weihe and Beiluohe Rivers, and it is located just before sediment enters the Sanmenxia Reservoir, which significantly influences downstream sedimentation and flood management. This study proposes a Parallel Spatio-Temporal Attention Long Short-Term Memory (PSTA-LSTM) model designed for sediment concentration forecasting, specifically tailored to handle the dynamic and complex flow-sediment conditions of the Yellow River. The PSTA-LSTM model integrates a parallel spatio-temporal attention mechanism that allows it to jointly capture multiscale temporal dependencies and spatial correlations among different watershed sites, significantly improving its ability to model sediment transport processes. In addition, the model incorporates an adaptive segmented rectified linear unit (SReLU) in the hidden layers to enhance the model’s capacity to learn complex nonlinear features and better handle rapid fluctuations in sediment concentrations, particularly during peak sediment events. This adaptive function helps the model manage the large variability in sediment loads commonly observed in rivers like the Yellow River, which is subject to varying flow conditions, tributary contributions, and local erosion-deposition dynamics. Experiments were conducted using measured hydrological and sediment data from 2000 to 2024. The results show that compared to the traditional serial LSTM structure, introducing the parallel spatio-temporal attention mechanism reduces the overall Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by approximately 25.6%, and improves Peak Sediment Prediction Accuracy (PRE) by about 12.7%. Incorporating the SReLU activation function significantly enhances peak prediction accuracy, with the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) improving by over 9%, showing that SReLU can more effectively handle peak sediment values. The study focuses on the sediment concentration process at the Tongguan hydrological station, located in the confluence area of the middle Yellow River. Tongguan Station is situated at the junction of the Yellow River mainstream and major tributaries such as the Weihe and Beiluohe Rivers. It serves as a critical sediment control section before the Yellow River enters the Sanmenxia Reservoir, playing an important role in reservoir regulation and downstream sediment transport. The upstream water and sediment mainly originate from the Yellow River basin above the Longmen Station, as well as the Weihe River basin at Huaxian Station and the Beiluohe River basin at Zhuangtou Station. Among these, the mainstream floods are characterized by sharp rises and falls with high sediment concentration; the Weihe River floods have a longer duration and a more blunt peak, while the Beiluohe River floods have sharp, narrow peaks, high sediment concentration, and rapid sediment wave propagation. The confluence and superposition of floods from different sources at the Tongguan confluence area not only affect sediment transport intensity but also determine the temporal variation characteristics of the sediment concentration process at Tongguan Station. Experiments were conducted using long-term observed hydrological and sediment data from 2000 to 2024, with the samples classified into five flow-sediment regimes: high-flow/high-sediment, medium-flow/medium-sediment, low-flow/low-sediment, high-flow/low-sediment, and low-flow/high-sediment. The PSTA-LSTM model was trained and evaluated separately under each regime and further compared between flood and non-flood seasons to examine its adaptability to varying hydrological conditions. The results show that introducing the parallel spatio-temporal attention mechanism improves the model’s performance significantly, with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreasing by approximately 25.6% and Peak Sediment Prediction Accuracy (PRE) improving by about 12.7%. Additionally, incorporating the SReLU activation function led to an increase in Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) by 6-11% compared to the traditional ReLU and softplus activation functions, showing its enhanced capability to handle peak sediment values effectively. The results also demonstrate that regime-based training based on flow-sediment types improves the prediction accuracy, with RMSE decreasing by approximately 15.7%, and NSE reaching over 80%. The comparison between flood and non-flood seasons shows that the PSTA-LSTM model exhibits stronger responsiveness during the flood season, especially during periods with significant peak sediment concentrations and rapid short-term fluctuations. These results highlight the model"s ability to adapt to dynamic and complex sediment transport conditions and its potential for real-time sediment concentration forecasting in large river systems like the Yellow River.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-31
  • 录用日期:2025-12-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-31
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