考虑雨量站点分布影响的时空图神经网络径流模拟
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作者单位:

1.河海大学;2.江苏省水文水资源勘测局;3.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3202802)


Runoff simulation using spatio-temporal graph neural networks incorporating rain gauge distribution effects
Author:
Affiliation:

Hohai University

Fund Project:

National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3202802)

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    摘要:

    径流模拟预报对于流域水灾害防御及水资源高效利用至关重要,而降水输入表达结构差异对径流模拟有显著影响。作为地面观测降水的主要来源,选取合理分布与密度的雨量站点资料对提高径流模拟准确性十分重要。本研究采用长短时记忆神经网络(LSTM)与图神经网络(GNN)构建一种时空图神经网络模型框架,融合水文要素时序动态特性与站点空间拓扑关系的时空特征开展流域径流模拟研究;同时考虑雨量站密度与空间分布的影响,对比分析不同权重方法计算面降雨量对模型性能的影响。结果表明:①聚类处理后得到的4种不同雨量站密度等级分布情景,对应的雨量站样本与总雨量站比率依次为100%、72.22%、50%与27.78%。时空图神经网络在各情景下的径流模拟结果中纳什效率系数NSE平均值均高于0.93,其中分布3情景下径流模拟的NSE、径流平均绝对误差MAE、径流总量相对偏差BIAS与决定系数R2分别为0.967、175.5m3/s、0.01与0.98,在径流总体过程以及高水与低水区段的表现均为最佳;②采用聚类权重法计算面平均雨量进行径流模拟得到的结果在所有面平均雨量计算方法中最为稳健,其中NSE值整体水平最高,MAE值普遍偏低,BIAS值最接近0。在不同面平均雨量计算方法下,分布3在所有分布情景中模拟效果误差与偏差最小,总体表现仍保持为最佳。通过优化雨量站网并选取合适的面雨量计算方法能够提升模型预测的效率与适应性,为提高径流模拟精度提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Runoff simulation and forecasting are essential for watershed flood hazard mitigation and optimal utilization of regional water resources. A key factor affecting these processes is the structural heterogeneity of precipitation inputs. As the primary source of precipitation data derived from ground observations, rain gauges can substantially improve rainfall-runoff modeling accuracy when deployed with appropriate density and spatial distribution. This study constructs a spatio-temporal graph neural network framework that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Graph Neural Network (GNN) approaches to jointly capture the temporal dynamics of hydrological variables and the spatial topological structure among stations for watershed runoff simulation. Meanwhile, the effects of rain gauge density and spatial distribution on model performance are systematically assessed using multiple mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimation methods. The results revealed that: (1) Rain gauge samples selected through clustering form four density distribution scenarios, representing 100%, 72.22%, 50%, and 27.78% of the full network respectively. Across four distributions, the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values exceeded 0.93. The runoff simulation associated with Distribution 3 yielded the best performance (NSE=0.967, mean absolute error MAE=175.5m3/s, relative bias BIAS=0.01, and coefficient of determination R2=0.98) under both high-flow and low-flow conditions; (2) Among all the MAP methods, the clustering weight method produced the most robust results, achieving the highest NSE, relatively low MAE, and BIAS closest to 0. Additionally, Distribution 3 maintained the best overall performance, with the smallest simulation errors and biases. The optimization of the rain gauge network combined with the selection of appropriate MAP approaches can enhance the efficiency and adaptability and simulation accuracy of runoff simulation models, offering a solid scientific foundation for hydrological forecasting.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-28
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-08
  • 录用日期:2026-04-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-04
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