2011-2023年苏南苏北湖泊水质和营养状态演变差异及驱动因素
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1.南京水利科学研究院;2.中国科学院大学;3.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(U24A20639)和湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室项目(NKL2023-ZD02、NKL2023-KP01)联合资助


Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Lake Water Quality and Trophic State in Different Regions of Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023
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Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    江苏省境内湖泊众多,受自然地理背景与社会经济发展区域分异影响,苏南与苏北湖泊的水环境演变及其驱动机制存在差异,然而当前对其认识并不清晰。本研究选取苏北的骆马湖、洪泽湖、白马湖、高邮湖及苏南的滆湖、长荡湖、固城湖等7个典型湖泊为对象,基于2011–2023年长序列逐月监测数据,分析了主要水质指标及综合营养状态指数(TLI)的演变特征,并应用随机森林模型定量辨析水文气象与土地利用等因子的驱动贡献。结果表明:近十余年来,江苏省典型湖泊水质呈现显著的南北分异格局。在营养状态水平上,滆湖与长荡湖富营养化程度最高,处于轻度至中度富营养状态;白马湖、洪泽湖与高邮湖为轻度富营养;骆马湖与固城湖则处于中营养向轻度富营养过渡的临界范围。趋势分析显示,苏南湖泊整体趋于改善,其中滆湖总氮浓度显著下降1.96 mg/L,总磷浓度下降0.087 mg/L,TLI下降9.4;与之相对,苏北湖泊富营养化呈加剧态势,高邮湖、骆马湖和洪泽湖TLI分别上升5.4、7.4和6.6。季节变化上,苏北湖泊汛期营养水平显著高于非汛期,表现出强烈的季节性波动,而苏南湖泊季节差异不显著。苏北湖泊对气象水文波动更为敏感,降雨量增加伴随入湖水量剧增驱动外源负荷输入是主导因素,且高温与频繁风浪扰动加剧了内源释放风险。苏南湖泊水质改善则主要受益于流域污染减排与土地利用结构优化调控,耕地占比缩减及林地与湿地修复有效拦截污染。

    Abstract:

    Lakes are vital ecosystems providing essential functions such as water conservation, climate regulation, and biodiversity maintenance. Jiangsu Province, located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers, is a typical region of shallow lakes in China where eutrophication remains a prominent issue. Due to the distinct natural geographical backgrounds and socio-economic development levels between Northern and Southern Jiangsu, the trophic states and driving mechanisms of these lakes exhibit significant regional heterogeneity. Based on long-term monthly monitoring data from 2011 to 2023, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of water quality indicators and the comprehensive Trophic Level Index (TLI) in seven typical lakes: Lake Luoma, Lake Hongze, Lake Baima, and Lake Gaoyou in Northern Jiangsu, and Lake Ge, Lake Changdang, and Lake Gucheng in Southern Jiangsu. The driving mechanisms were further quantified using Random Forest (RF) models and Pearson correlation analysis. The results showed that over the past decade, the water quality of typical lakes in Jiangsu exhibited a distinct regional divergence. In terms of trophic status, Lake Ge and Lake Changdang exhibited the highest degree of eutrophication, ranging from light to moderate eutrophic states. Lake Baima, Lake Hongze, and Lake Gaoyou were categorized as lightly eutrophic, while Lake Luoma and Lake Gucheng were positioned within the critical transition range from mesotrophic to lightly eutrophic states. Trend analysis revealed that lakes in Southern Jiangsu exhibited significant water quality improvements, particularly Lake Ge and Lake Changdang, which were historically moderately eutrophic. Specifically, TN and TP concentrations in Lake Ge decreased by 1.96 mg/L and 0.087 mg/L (a 48.3% reduction), respectively, with its TLI dropping by 9.4. Conversely, lakes in Northern Jiangsu experienced a deteriorating trend. Lake Luoma transitioned from mesotrophic to lightly eutrophic as its TLI rose by 7.4, while Lake Hongze and Lake Gaoyou TLI increased 6.6 and 5.4, respectively. TLI values ranged across the study area from 47.36 to 61.01, with Southern lakes generally maintaining higher absolute trophic levels but showing better remediation progress. In terms of seasonal variation, Northern lakes exhibited significant differences between flood and non-flood seasons, with TLI values significantly higher during the flood season, whereas Southern lakes remained relatively stable throughout the year. Driver analysis revealed that water quality in Northern lakes was highly sensitive to hydrometeorological fluctuations. Increased precipitation and the resulting surge in inflow volume acted as the primary drivers of exogenous nutrient loading, further exacerbated by internal release under high temperatures and wind disturbances. In contrast, the improvement in Southern lakes was mainly attributed to landuse optimization and strict pollution control. The reduction in farmland (acting as a "source") and the restoration of forests and wetlands (acting as "sinks") effectively intercepted runoff pollution. These findings highlight the complexity of lake management under climate change and non-point source pressures, providing a scientific basis for differentiated eutrophication control and regional water security strategies in Jiangsu Province.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-26
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-20
  • 录用日期:2026-03-24
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-11
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