1284–1955年滇中高原杞麓湖水位季节性振幅特征重建及其驱动机制分析
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作者单位:

1.复旦大学历史学系;2.复旦大学大气与海洋科学系;3.复旦大学历史地理研究中心

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中国博士后科学基金


Reconstruction of seasonal water-level amplitude and analysis of the driving mechanisms of Lake Qilu, central Yunnan Plateau (1284–1955)
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Department of History,Fudan University,Shanghai;2.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Fudan University,, Shanghai;3.Center for Historical Geography Studies,Fudan University

Fund Project:

China Postdoctoral Science Foundation

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    摘要:

    高原浅水湖泊的水位过程是理解人地关系演变及其生态风险的重要切入点,但受限于现代监测起步较晚,难以获得长时段连续观测记录。本文以云南杞麓湖为例,综合聚落分布、古岸线地貌、历史文献、古旧地图与遥感等多源证据,重建1284、1523、1691、1798、1894、1937年6个典型年份的丰、枯水域范围,结合历史文献记录推算构建1284—1955年水位振幅特征序列。结果表明,湖盆主体形态受地形约束总体稳定,水域变化集中在西岸及南、北两岸浅滩—三角洲等易围垦地带,表现为堤线外推与湾地围合,丰水期湖面外扩空间逐步收缩。杞麓湖水位振幅在过去约600年呈阶梯式减振并叠加平台内波动,在1523年与1691年前后发生两次台阶式下跳,显示水位振幅发生平台转换,1894年虽然发生外泄渠道强干预事件,但未出现平台转换。驱动机制分析表明杞麓湖水位振幅是治理能力中介下气候窗口与工程控制耦合驱动的,气候暖干阶段为围垦、疏浚与外泄改造提供较低水位与滩地熟化的工程实施窗口。但是,平台能否下移取决于制度与治理能力能否将窗口期行动组织为持续化、常态化工程,并在后续维护中形成锁定效应。研究为高原浅水湖泊历史时期阶段性转折识别与治理路径评估提供了可追溯的过程参照。

    Abstract:

    Studying water-level amplitude in plateau shallow lakes provides a critical perspective for understanding human–environment interactions and associated ecological risks. However, long-term continuous records of lake-level variation are scarce due to the relatively late establishment of modern monitoring. Using Qilu Lake in Yunnan Province as a case study, this research synthesizes multiple lines of evidence—including settlement distribution, palaeoshoreline geomorphology, historical documents, early maps, and remote sensing—to reconstruct seasonal lake extents (wet and dry seasons) for six representative years (1284, 1523, 1691, 1798, 1894, and 1937). Combined with documentary records, we further derive a characteristic series of water-level amplitude for the period 1284–1955. The results show that the main basin morphology remained generally stable under topographic constraints, while changes in lake extent were concentrated in reclamation-prone areas such as the shoals and deltaic margins along the western shore and the southern and northern shores. These changes are manifested as outward advancement of embankment lines and progressive enclosure of bays, with a gradual reduction in the space available for wet-season lake expansion. Over the past 600 years, the water-level amplitude of Qilu Lake exhibits a step-like decline superimposed on internal variability. Two notable downward shifts occurred around 1523 and 1691, marking phase changes in amplitude, whereas strong human intervention in outflow channels around 1894 did not trigger such a shift. Mechanism analysis indicates that variations in water-level amplitude were jointly driven by climatic windows and engineered interventions, with governance capacity acting as a key mediator. Specifically, warm–dry climatic phases provided implementation windows for reclamation, dredging, and outlet modification by lowering lake levels and promoting the stabilization of exposed lakebeds. Whether a downward shift in amplitude occurred depended on whether institutions could translate such short-term interventions into sustained engineering practices and maintain their effects over time. This study offers a traceable, process-based framework for identifying historical phase shifts and evaluating governance pathways in plateau shallow lakes.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-07
  • 录用日期:2026-05-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-13
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