| 摘要: |
| 揭示水资源承载力系统多个指标之间的动态耦合关系及其耦合水平对于提高区域水资源的可持续利用水平和保障经济社会的稳健发展至关重要。本文将水资源承载力系统划分为水资源、社会、经济和生态环境4个子系统并从中选取16个代表性指标；采用回归系数和相关系数共同划分指标间耦合关系的类型,最后基于滑动窗口法和网络分析法揭示多个指标之间耦合关系的动态变化趋势,以及水资源承载力系统的耦合水平。以甘肃省为例,结果表明：甘肃省水资源承载力系统经历了耦合—解耦—再耦合的关联模式,且在2015年之后,正向协调关系的强度显著提升,而权衡关系和负向协调关系的影响则明显减弱；正向协调关系中的关键指标为水资源开发利用率、城镇化率、灌溉亩均用水量和人均GDP,其对正向协调关系的推动作用整体上随时间增强。权衡和负向协调关系中多数关键指标对该两种关系推动作用随时间先增强后显著减弱,但人均日用水量对权衡关系仍有较强的推动作用,在未来水资源管理中应予以重点控制；水资源承载力系统指标关联的模块由7个降低为5个,表明系统耦合水平虽有所提高仍有提升空间。研究思路可为客观全面地分析系统的耦合协调提供新的有效途径。 |
| 关键词: 水资源承载力系统 网络分析 耦合协调 水资源管理 甘肃省 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1900501),中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2023HHZX004) |
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| Coupling relationship between indexes of water resources carrying system based on complex network: a case study of Gansu Province |
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Jia Yubo,Su Xiaoling,Chu Jiangdong,Zhu Xingyu,Wu Haijiang
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College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University
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| Abstract: |
| Revealing the dynamic coupling relationships and coupling levels among multiple indicators of the water resources carrying capacity system is crucial for enhancing the sustainable utilization of regional water resources and ensuring the steady development of the economy and society. In this study, the water resources carrying capacity system is divided into four subsystems: water resources, society, economy, and ecological environment, from which 16 representative indicators are selected. Regression coefficients and correlation coefficients are jointly used to classify the coupling relationships among the indicators. Finally, based on the sliding window method and network analysis, the dynamic trends of the coupling relationships among multiple indicators and the coupling level of the water resources carrying capacity system are revealed. Taking Gansu Province as an example, the results show that the water resources carrying capacity system in Gansu Province has undergone a coupling-decoupling-recoupling pattern. After 2015, the strength of the positive coordination relationship has significantly increased, while the impacts of trade-off and negative coordination relationships have notably decreased. The key indicators in the positive coordination relationship are water resources development and utilization rate, urbanization rate, irrigation water consumption per mu, and per capita GDP, which have generally strengthened their driving effects on the positive coordination relationship over time. Most key indicators in the trade-off and negative coordination relationships have initially strengthened and then significantly weakened their driving effects on these two relationships over time. However, per capita daily water consumption still has a strong driving effect on the trade-off relationship and should be a key focus in future water resources management. The number of modules associated with the indicators of the water resources carrying capacity system has decreased from seven to five, indicating that although the system"s coupling level has improved, there is still room for further enhancement. The research approach provides a new and effective way to objectively and comprehensively analyze the coupling and coordination of the system. |
| Key words: water resources carrying system network analysis coupling coordination water resources management Gansu Province |
