| 摘要: |
| 不同区域具有不同的地理和气候条件，对于极端降雨的影响规律不尽相同；深入、准确地剖析太湖流域极端降雨对城镇化进程的响应规律，对于预测和减轻未来极端天气事件的潜在影响至关重要。因此，本研究通过考虑区域异质性，构造了城市、乡镇、农村不同地区的不同类型的城镇化因子矩阵；将位置参数建模为随气候变化因子、本地因子、邻近城市因子和邻近乡镇因子变化的函数，构建了反映不同地区、不同速度的城镇化进程对极端降雨影响的时变广义极值分布模型，揭示了太湖流域极端降雨对城镇化的响应规律。结果显示：不同模型的对比表明有必要在极端降雨模型中考虑气候变化和城镇化的影响，且不仅要考虑本地城镇化的影响，还要考虑周围地区城镇化的影响；受城镇化的驱动影响，太湖流域极端降雨的量级整体增大，且更为集中；城镇化的影响使得太湖流域极端降雨量级的重现水平在城市区域增加36.0%、乡镇区域增加25.2%、农村区域增加31.6%，极端降雨累积强度的重现水平在城市区域增加16.8%、乡镇区域增加35.2%、农村区域增加24.4%。本研究考虑区域异质性，构建了一个全面反映不同地区、不同速度的城镇化对极端降雨影响的评估框架，深化了气候变化、城镇发展与极端降水交互作用的认识，为制定更为精准的气候适应策略及城市规划提供了科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 城镇化 极端降雨 非平稳GEV模型 城市 乡镇 农村 太湖流域 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划“山洪灾害风险防控区划与全过程监测防范关键技术”(2023YFC3006700)；国家自然科学基金重大研究计划“西南河流源区水文-环境多过程的立体感知及演变研究”（92047203）；水利部重大科技项目“冰期河道流量在线自动监测关键技术研究”（SKS-2022045）；江苏南水科技有限公司自立项目“中小型水库防洪预警平台研发”（NSZS0622001） |
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| Response regularity of extreme precipitation to urbanisation in Taihu Basin considering regional heterogeneity |
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JIANG Feiqing,ZHU Yiqing,Dong Jiaxian,XIA Xiang,CHEN Yufei,NIU Zhixing,JI Hai-xiang,WANG Zeng’an
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| Abstract: |
| Different regions have different geographic and climatic conditions, which have different patterns of influence on extreme precipitation. An in-depth and accurate analysis of the response regularity of extreme precipitation to urbanisation in Taihu Basin is essential for predicting and mitigating the potential impacts of future extreme weather events. Therefore, in this study, different types of urbanisation factor matrices for different regions of cities, towns and rural areas are constructed by considering regional heterogeneity. The location parameters are modelled as a function of variation with climate change factor, local factor, neighbouring city factor and neighbouring township factor. A time-varying non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model reflecting the impact of urbanisation processes on extreme precipitation in different regions and at different rates is constructed. The response regularity of extreme precipitation to urbanisation in the Taihu Lake basin is revealed. The results show that: the comparison of the different models shows the need to consider the impacts of climate change and urbanisation in extreme precipitation models, and not only the impacts of local urbanisation, but also the impacts of urbanisation in surrounding areas. Driven by urbanisation, the magnitude of extreme precipitation in Taihu Basin increases overall and becomes more concentrated around a certain value. The urbanization increases the recurrence level of the magnitude of extreme precipitation in Taihu Basin by 36. 0% in city areas, 25.2% in townships and 31.6% in rural areas, and increases the recurrence level of the cumulative intensity of extreme precipitation by 16.8% in city areas, 35.2% in townships and 24.4% in rural areas. Considering regional heterogeneity, this study constructs an assessment framework that comprehensively reflects the impacts of urbanisation on extreme precipitation in different regions and at different rates, deepens the understanding of the interactions between climate change, urban development and extreme precipitation, and provides a scientific basis for formulating more accurate climate adaptation strategies and urban planning. |
| Key words: urbanisation extreme precipitation non-stationary GEV model cities towns rural areas Taihu Basin |
