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| 基于改进广义单位线模型的中小流域洪水预报 |
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董玮捷, 刘智勇, 陈晓宏, 林凯荣, 涂新军, 葛阳, 颜宇
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中山大学土木工程学院水资源与环境研究中心
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| 摘要: |
| 传统的产汇流模型进行洪水预报需要大量的参数与数据。为了简化模型参数与降低洪水预报的复杂度，本研究构建了一种考虑降雨损失与降雨前期流域流量的简易广义单位线（GUH）模型，采用多目标粒子群算法优化参数，以岳城流域、九洲流域为研究区域，根据改进GUH模型、SCS-CN模型、Nash单位线构建不同洪水预报组合进行对比分析，并对改进GUH模型在中小流域洪水预报的适用性进行评估，探讨了不同预见期下改进GUH模型的预报精度。研究结果表明：（1）改进GUH模型预报精度优于另外两个洪水预报组合；（2）改进GUH模型在岳城流域、九洲流域都达到了乙等预报水平，确定性系数均值分别为0.79、0.84，合格率分别为90.91%、83.33%；（3）改进GUH模型的预报精度随着预见期的增加逐渐下降，当预见期小于4h时仍能保持一定的预测水平。考虑降雨损失和前期流域流量的改进GUH模型参数少、结构简单，具有一定洪水预报潜力，为中小流域的洪水预报提供新思路。 |
| 关键词: 广义单位线 洪水预报 降雨-径流关系 粒子群算法 中小流域 |
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| 基金项目:广东省杰出青年基金（2023B1515020116）、国家自然科学基金项目(52179031)、国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000)和珠江人才计划团队项目(2019ZT08G090)联合资助。 |
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| Flood Forecasting in Small and Medium-Sized Watershed Using an Improved General Unit Hydrograph Model |
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DONG Weijie, LIU Zhiyong, CHEN Xiaohong, LIN Kairong, TU Xinjun, GE Yang, YAN Yu
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Center for Water Resources and Environment,School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University
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| Abstract: |
| The unit hydrograph is a simplified way to understand how a watershed responds to rainfall and offers a practical approach for flood forecasting. By approximating real-world watershed processes as a time-invariant linear hydrologic system, Guo turns the unit hydrograph to General Unit Hydrograph (GUH). The traditional runoff hydrological models for flood forecasting require a large number of parameters and datasets. In order to reduce the complexity of flood forecasting and model parameters, a simple GUH model considering rainfall loss and pre-flow is constructed in this study, combining with the Multiple Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) algorithm for parameters optimization. Taking Yuecheng Basin and Jiuzhou Basin as the study basins, different combinations of flood forecasting are constructed according to the improved GUH model、SCS-CN model and Nash unit hydrograph for comparison. The applicability of the model in flood forecasting in small and medium-sized basins is evaluated, and the forecasting accuracy of the improved GUH model at different lead times is discussed. The results showed that: （1）The improved GUH model"s forecasting accuracy was superior to two other runoff hydrological models.（2）The improved GUH model reached a Category II forecast level at both the Yuecheng Basin and Jiuzhou Basin，with mean coefficients of determination for Yuecheng and Jiuzhou Basin were 0.79 and 0.84, and pass rates of 90.91% and 83.33%, respectively;（3）The forecasting accuracy of the improved GUH model gradually decreased with an increase in lead times, but it still maintained a certain level of predictive performance when the lead times was less than four-hour. The improved GUH model, considering rainfall losses and pre-flow, had fewer parameters and a simple structure. It showed potential for flood forecasting and provided new insights for flood forecasting in small and medium-sized watersheds. |
| Key words: general unit hydrograph flood forecasting rainfall-runoff relationship Particle Swarm Optimization small and medium-sized watersheds |
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