| 摘要: |
| 青海湖是我国最大的内陆湖泊,流域面积29661km2,水面高程超过3000m,受人为活动影响相对较少,基本上还处于半自然状态。水量平衡计算结果表明,有观测资料的近30年来,青海湖处于负平蘅状态,水位下降了2.96m,平均每年下降10.2cm。如果未来湖区的气候大体保持过去的情况,水位将再下降5.8m,经过57年才能平衡。如果考虑"温室效应"所引起的西北地区未来气候变化,水位亦将下降,每年平均下降10.1cm。 |
| 关键词: 青海湖 水量平衡 水位变化预测 |
| DOI：10.18307/1994.0402 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国科学院兰州分院西部资源环境发展研究中心资助 |
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| Water balance and forecasting of water level change in Qinghai Lake |
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Qu Yaoguang
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Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology & Geocryology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.Lanzhou 730000
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| Abstract: |
| Qinghai Lake, the largest closed interior saline lake in China with a basin area of 29661km2 and an altitude of about 3000m, is located in the northeast of the Q inghai-Xizang Pleateau, Being a long distance from the industrial region and affected by less human activities, it is actually in a semi-natural condition.Hence the lake is a place favorable for investigation of the environmental and climatic changes.As shown by the calculated results of water balance and the measured data during the recent 30 years (1959-1988), the water balance of Qinghai Lake was in a negative situation.The lake has decreased 2.96m in water level during the past 30 years, about 1 0.2cm per year.If the climatic scenarios of Qinghai Lake continues, the lake will have its level dropped 5.8m in 57 years later (2045).When considering "Green House Effect" and its impacts on climatic scenarios,it is estimated that the lake level will be continually descending at a speed of 10.1cm per year. |
| Key words: Qinghai Lake water balance water level change forecasting |
