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引用本文:杨迈里,黄群.女山湖地区北宋以来旱涝灾害的初步探讨.湖泊科学,1997,9(2):147-151. DOI:10.18307/1997.0209
Yang Maili,Huang Qun.Drought-Flood Disaster in The Area Around Nushan Lake. J. Lake Sci.1997,9(2):147-151. DOI:10.18307/1997.0209
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女山湖地区北宋以来旱涝灾害的初步探讨
杨迈里, 黄群
中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008
摘要:
女山湖地处淮河中、下游交界区右岸,属淮河支流地河水系.由于该地区为北亚热带向暖温带过渡气候区,研究其降水、旱涝的长期变化有重要意义.北宋以来千年间,该地区是我国东部旱涝灾害、尤其是洪涝频繁高发地区.据历史文献记载,自960A.D.以来,共有旱涝灾747年,三年二灾.其中洪涝425年,占57%;干旱322年,占43%.笔者在逐年分辨的基础上,建立了女山湖地区千年旱涝序列,并从中得出:960-1370A.D.为以干旱为主时期;1371-1910AD.为以涝湿为主时期.两大时期内各有涝湿和干旱的波动.同时在对序列周期分析基础上,进行拟会和外推,预计本区在2010A.D.前处于偏涝,2010-2030AD.则转为编导.
关键词:  女山湖地区  历史记载  旱涝灾害
DOI:10.18307/1997.0209
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金49271068
Drought-Flood Disaster in The Area Around Nushan Lake
Yang Maili, Huang Qun
Nanjing institute of Geogrophy and Linmiology, Chinese Academy of Scicnces, Nanjing 210008
Abstract:
Nushan Lake, lying at the juncture of the middle and lower reaches of the Huaihe River, belongs to Chihe River system, a branch of the Huaihe River. It is of great significance to study a long-term fluctuation of precipitation, drought and flood in the transition area between north sub-tropical zone and south temperate zone. Since Northern Song Dynasty the area around Nushan Lake is one of the regions which frequently suffer drought-flood hazards, especially flood hazards. Historical records show that since A. D. 960 drought-flood disasters happened in 747 years, almost two disasters in three years. 57% of them, 425 years, were floody, and 43% of them, 332 years, were droughty. Millenary drought-flood series in the area has been constructed on the basn of yearly identification of historical records. It has been concluded from the series that the past thousand years can be divided into two periods, each with fluctuation of drought and flood. It was dominated by drought from A. D. 960 to A. D. 1370 and by wet or flood from A. D. 1371 to A. D. 1910. Fitting and extrapolation were made based on analysis of the periodicity of the series. It has been predicted that it may incline to wet in the 2010s, and to drought from the 2010s to the 2030s in the area.
Key words:  Nushan Lake  historical record  drought-flood disaster
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