| 摘要: |
| 为满足流域防洪规划工作的需要, 针对鄱阳湖湖区暴雨洪水特点, 分别用面积比拟法、修正总入流法、单水源模型（现预报方案）、新安江三水源模型, 对湖区4个实际大水年份进行分析计算, 在新安江三水源模型中分析了鄱阳湖高低水位时水陆面积变化对产汇流的影响, 并给出了相应的计算公式结果表明, 复杂的概念性降雨径流模型能充分地模拟径流洪水过程;而在合理的条件下, 运用简单的方法亦能取得较好的效果.通过比较分析, 提出鄱阳湖区间洪水不同方法的适用条件。 |
| 关键词: 鄱阳湖 区间洪水 水文模型 计算方法 防洪规划 |
| DOI：10.18307/1998.0105 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| Flood Estimation Methods for Poyang Lake Area |
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Xu Gaohong, Qin Zhiwei
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Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010
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| Abstract: |
| In the light of storm flood properties, analysis and computation ave carried out about four heavy flood events ever occurred in the Poyang Lake area using four mbthods, i.e.area ratio method, adjusted total inflow method, tingle-source model(the current flood forecasting scheme) and the Xin'anjiang Model(three-source), for the sake of river basin flood control planning The effect of the changing ratios of water surface to land surface corresponding to diferent water stag-es on i.e off generation and flow concentration is analyzed.and the estimation formulae in the Xin'an jiang Model are modified.Results show that conceptual rainfall-run of models can properly simulate the flood processes, and that under reasonable conditions, simplified methods can also prod uce satisfied results.The applicability co nditions of different methods are given through com-parative analysis. |
| Key words: Poyang Lake distrio flood hydrologic model computation method flood control planning |
