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引用本文:齐文,郑绵平.西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析.湖泊科学,2006,18(1):21-28. DOI:10.18307/2006.0103
QI Wen,ZHENG Mianping.Winters and ARIMA model analyses of the lake level of salt Lake Zabuye, Tibetan Plateau. J. Lake Sci.2006,18(1):21-28. DOI:10.18307/2006.0103
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西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析
齐文1,2, 郑绵平1,2
1.中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所, 北京 100037;2.中国地质科学院盐湖资源与环境开放研究实验室, 北京 100037
摘要:
由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化.藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录.中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观测,积累了连续13年珍贵的数据.如何根据湖泊水位历史记录数据,准确的定量预测水位中短期变化,是关系着盐湖资源开发命运的大事.本文用Winters线性和季节性指数平滑法、ARIMA乘积季节模型两种时间序列分析方法,根据西藏扎布耶盐湖1991年1月-2003年12月水位变化的时间序列数据,探讨了两种时间序列数据的预测方法在盐湖水位动态变化预测中的应用.
关键词:  扎布耶盐湖  水位预测  Winters模型  ARIMA乘积季节模型
DOI:10.18307/2006.0103
分类号:
基金项目:科技部公益性研究项目“中国重点盐湖动态变化监测数据库与预警体系”(2002-2003,编号2001DIA10020);国家自然科学重点基金(49833010);国家科委重点研究项目“西藏扎布耶盐湖开发前期长期观测”(1990-1995)联合资助
Winters and ARIMA model analyses of the lake level of salt Lake Zabuye, Tibetan Plateau
QI Wen1,2, ZHENG Mianping1,2
1.Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Science(CAGS), Beijing 100037, P. R. China;2.Open Laboratory of Saline Lake Resources and Environment, CAGS, Beijing 100037, P. R. China
Abstract:
Due to the greenhouse effect, the air temperature is now rising, and the changes (drop or rise) of the water level of salt lakes in arid-semi-arid salt lake areas of western China is speeding up. Though there are many lakes in northern Tibetan Plateau, there are no lake level records, except at salt Lake Zabuye, where a long-term field observatory station was established in 1990 by Open Laboratory of Saline Lake Resources and Environment, CAGS, and lake level was recorded monthly. How to forecast the short-term lake-level change accurately and quantitatively according to the historical lake-level records is a major issue concerning the fate of salt lake resource development. In this paper, according to the lake-level records observed during 1991-2003 in salt Lake Zabuye in Tibetan Plateau, we discussed the applications of two forecasting methods of time-serial analysis, the model of Winters linear and seasonal exponent smoothness and the model of ARIMA seasonal multiplication, in forecasting the dynamic lake-level change of salt lakes.
Key words:  Salt Lake Zabuye  lake level forecasting  Winters model  ARIMA model
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