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引用本文:刘子豪,陆建忠,黄建武,陈晓玲,张玲,盛颖东.基于CMIP5模式鄱阳湖流域未来参考作物蒸散量预估.湖泊科学,2019,31(6):1685-1697. DOI:10.18307/2019.0608
LIU Zihao,LU Jianzhong,HUANG Jianwu,CHEN Xiaoling,ZHANG Ling,SHENG Yingdong.Prediction and trend of future reference crop evapotranspiration in the Poyang Lake Basin based on CMIP5 Models. J. Lake Sci.2019,31(6):1685-1697. DOI:10.18307/2019.0608
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基于CMIP5模式鄱阳湖流域未来参考作物蒸散量预估
刘子豪1, 陆建忠2, 黄建武1, 陈晓玲2, 张玲2, 盛颖东1
1.华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室, 武汉 430079;2.武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室, 武汉 430079
摘要:
预测未来气候情境下鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量(Reference crop Evapotranspiration,ET0)的时空分布可为流域水资源的优化管理,为科学应对气候变化对农业生产的影响提供基础数据支撑.利用鄱阳湖流域14个气象站点1961-2014年逐日气象数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算出历史ET0;基于同期美国环境中心(NCEP)再分析数据及2006-2100年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的预测数据,经统计降尺度模型(statistical downscaling model,SDSM)模拟和偏差校正,预测流域未来ET0;通过Mann-Kendall检验、普通克里金插值和空间自相关法分析了流域1961-2100年ET0的时空演变特征.结果表明:NCEP再分析资料与流域ET0建立的逐步回归降尺度模型模拟效果较好,CNRM-CM5模式降尺度模拟结果经偏差校正后,精度明显提高,适宜流域未来ET0的预估.鄱阳湖流域在基准期1961-2010年ET0整体上呈减小趋势,空间分布上呈南北高、中间低的特点,表现出明显的空间差异性.RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来3个时期鄱阳湖流域ET0较基准期均呈不同程度的增加趋势,其空间分布整体表现为东高西低、局地略有突出;无论是在基准期或是未来情景下的3个时期,ET0均具有较强的空间自相关性.在RCP8.5情景下,鄱阳湖1961-2100年干旱指数呈现出较为明显的上升趋势,流域的干旱状况随时间加剧,2011-2100年间流域绝大部分地区由湿润区转为半湿润区,干旱指数自南向北递减,赣江流域将是鄱阳湖流域未来干旱风险的重点防范区.
关键词:  蒸散  CMIP5  统计降尺度  未来气候  干旱指数  参考作物蒸散量  鄱阳湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2019.0608
分类号:
基金项目:武汉市应用基础前沿专项(2019020701011502)、国家自然科学基金项目(41971402)、湖北省自然科学基金项目(2019CFB736)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2042018kf0220)、江西省水工程安全与资源高效利用工程研究中心开放基金重点项目(OF201601)和测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室专项科研经费联合资助.
Prediction and trend of future reference crop evapotranspiration in the Poyang Lake Basin based on CMIP5 Models
LIU Zihao1, LU Jianzhong2, HUANG Jianwu1, CHEN Xiaoling2, ZHANG Ling2, SHENG Yingdong1
1.Key Laboratory of Geographic Process Analysis and Simulation of Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China;2.State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, P. R. China
Abstract:
Predicting the temporal and spatial distribution of Reference crop Evapotranspiration(ET0) in the Poyang Lake Basin in the future climate scenario can provide optimal management of water resource in the watershed and provide basic data support for scientific response to the impact of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper, the daily meteorological data of 14 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2014 were used to calculate the historical ET0 by the Penman-Monteith formula; Based on the reanalysis data of the US Environmental Center(NCEP) and the CNRM-CM5 model in CMIP5 from 2006 to 2100. The prediction data in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are predicted by the statistical downscaling model(SDSM) and the bias correction to predict the future ET0 of the basin; Through M-K test, ordinary kriging interpolation and spatial autocorrelation, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of ET0 in the basin from 1961 to 2100 were analyzed. The results show that:the simulation effect of NCEP reanalysis data and the stepwise regression scale reduction model established by ET0 of the basin is good, and the accuracy of the scale reduction simulation results of CNRM-CM5 model is significantly improved after the deviation correction, which is suitable for the estimation of future ET0 of the basin. The overall ET0 of Poyang Lake Basin during the base period from 1961 to 2010 shows a decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution is high in the north and south, and low in the middle, showing obvious spatial differences. Under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the ET0 of Poyang Lake Basin in the next three periods shows an increasing trend in different degrees compared with the base period. ET0 has strong spatial autocorrelation in both benchmark period and future scenario. In RCP8.5 scenario, the aridity index from 1961 to 2100 in Poyang Lake Basin, showing a more obvious rise and increased with time, the valley of drought conditions in most of river basin from 2011 to 2100 by the humid to semi-humid areas, aridity index decreases from south to north, the Gan river basin will be the focus of the Poyang Lake Basin in the future drought risk prevention area.
Key words:  Evapotranspiration  CMIP5  statistical downscaling  future climate  aridity index  reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)  Poyang Lake Basin
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