| 摘要: |
| 野生中华鲟（Acipenser sinensis）种群正面临灭绝的风险，一个重要原因是长期以来对其生存危机的主因缺乏共识，导致缺乏针对性保护措施.基于中华鲟种群模型，我们把主流专家提出的五个主因——捕捞、污染、航运、全球气候变化、水利工程与中华鲟种群衰退的影响因子进行对比，归并为繁殖群体损失、补充群体损失、存活率降低和长江水坝累积影响四种可能因子，在此基础上进行单因子和多因子情景计算和分析，并评估这些情景发生的可能性.结果表明：长江水坝的累积影响是中华鲟生存危机的主因.捕捞、污染、航运等其他因素对种群数量有一定不利影响.我们的定量情景计算和分析，验证了1982年中央批准把中华鲟列为葛洲坝救鱼唯一对象的共识和观点-葛洲坝对中华鲟影响最大；揭示了长江水坝对中华鲟种群衰退和灭绝风险的影响机制；厘清了各影响因素的主次关系，否定了长期存在的、把中华鲟生存危机主因归咎于非法捕捞、污染、航运、全球气候变化等传统主流观点.我们认为，要挽救野生中华鲟种群，必须采用针对性措施减缓长江水坝的影响，恢复野生群体的自然繁殖是中华鲟保护的当务之急. |
| 关键词: 中华鲟 种群模型 情景分析 非法捕捞 污染 航运 长江水坝 |
| DOI：10.18307/2020.0403 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51379218）和中国水科院基本科研业务费项目（SS0145C202018）联合资助. |
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| What is actually the main cause for the survival crisis of Chinese sturgeon? |
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WANG Luhai, HUANG Zhenli
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China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| The wild Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis Gray, 1835) has been facing the risk of extinction due to no consensus on the chief culprit of its survival crisis for a long time, resulting in the absence of targeted protection measures. Based on our population model of Chinese sturgeon, we merged the five potential culprits proposed by the elite experts—illegal fishing, pollution, shipping, global climate change and Yangtze dams—to the four possible factors of Chinese sturgeon population decline, which are breeding population loss, recruit population loss, reducing survival rate, and cumulative effects of the Yangtze dams. Then we calculated single-factor and multi-factor scenarios of anthropogenic activities and evaluated the possibility of these scenarios. The results show that the cumulative impact of the Yangtze dams is the main cause of the survival crisis of Chinese sturgeon. Other factors such as fishing, pollution, and shipping have a certain adverse effect on the population. Our quantitative scenario calculation and analysis validated the consensus that the Chinese sturgeon was listed as the sole target for the fish rescue programme of Gezhouba Dam (GD) in 1982 because of the worst impact of the GD on the Chinese sturgeon. We reveal the impact mechanism of the Yangtze dams on the decline and even extinction and overturn the long-standing mainstream opinions that the survival crisis of Chinese sturgeon was caused by illegal fishing, pollution, shipping, or global climate change. Then we suggest that targeted measures must be adopted to mitigate the impact of the Yangtze dams to save wild Chinese sturgeon and restoring the natural reproduction of wild population is now the urgent matter for the Chinese sturgeon conservation. |
| Key words: Chinese sturgeon population model scenario analysis illegal fishing pollution shipping Yangtze dams |
