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引用本文:张礼兵,胡亚南,金菊良,吴成国,周玉良,崔毅.基于系统动力学的巢湖流域水资源承载力动态预测与调控.湖泊科学,2021,33(1):242-254. DOI:10.18307/2021.0106
Zhang Libing,Hu Yanan,Jin Juliang,Wu Chengguo,Zhou Yuliang,Cui Yi.Dynamic prediction of water resources carrying capacity of Chaohu Basin and system optimization regulation based on system dynamics simulation. J. Lake Sci.2021,33(1):242-254. DOI:10.18307/2021.0106
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基于系统动力学的巢湖流域水资源承载力动态预测与调控
张礼兵1,2, 胡亚南1, 金菊良1,2, 吴成国1,2, 周玉良1,2, 崔毅1,2
1.合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 合肥 230009;2.合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 合肥 230009
摘要:
湖泊流域水资源承载能力动态预测与调控是维护湖泊生态安全、保障社会经济健康持续发展的重要基础和手段.本文以巢湖流域为研究对象,提出基于系统动力学的湖泊流域水资源承载力动态预测技术和试验优化调控方法.首先以县(市)为基本单元构建水资源承载力系统动力学模拟与动态预测模型;再从空间上将各县(市)耦合为流域系统整体模型,并通过敏感性分析筛选量质要素调控指标;最后采用正交试验设计确定流域水资源承载力优化调控方案.结果表明:由于流域内产业规模的扩大以及城镇化率的提升,2017—2050年巢湖流域水资源承载状态值整体呈恶化趋势,并于2030年以后将长期处于超载状态,通过对影响要素针对性优化调控后,2017—2050年流域水资源承载状态均达到临界或可载.研究表明本文提出的方法对于促进区域社会经济环境协调发展和改善流域水资源承载力具有较好的实际应用价值.
关键词:  巢湖流域  水资源承载力  量质要素  动态预测  优化调控  系统动力学
DOI:10.18307/2021.0106
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407206)和国家自然科学基金项目(51479045)联合资助.
Dynamic prediction of water resources carrying capacity of Chaohu Basin and system optimization regulation based on system dynamics simulation
Zhang Libing1,2, Hu Yanan1, Jin Juliang1,2, Wu Chengguo1,2, Zhou Yuliang1,2, Cui Yi1,2
1.College of Civil and Water Conservancy Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, P. R. China;2.Institute of Water Resources and Environmental System Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, P. R. China
Abstract:
Dynamic prediction and regulation of water resources carrying capacity in lake basin is an important basis and means to maintain lake ecological security and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of economy. In this paper, Chaohu Basin is taken as the research object, and the dynamic prediction technology and the optimal regulation method of experiment of water resources carrying capacity of lake basin based on system dynamics are proposed. Firstly, a simulation and dynamic prediction model of water resources carrying capacity system is constructed with county (city) as the basic unit; then, the multiple counties (cities) are coupled into the whole basin model in space, and the regulation index of quantity and quality elements are selected through sensitivity analysis; finally, the orthogonal design method is used to determine the optimal regulation scheme of water resources carrying capacity. The results show that due to the expansion of industrial scale and the improvement of urbanization, the water resources carrying state value of Chaohu Basin is deteriorating from 2017 to 2050, and it will be overloaded for a long time after 2030. After targeted optimal regulation of influencing elements, it will reach critical or loadable. This study shows that the method proposed in this paper has good application value for promoting the coordinated development of regional socio-economic environment and improving the regional water resources carrying capacity.
Key words:  Chaohu Basin  water resources carrying capacity  quantity and quality elements  dynamic prediction  optimal regulation  system dynamics
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