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引用本文:李加龙,李慧赟,罗潋葱,龚发露,张如枫,刘凤龙,吴松涛,罗碧瑜.抚仙湖历史水位反演与未来30年水位变化预测.湖泊科学,2022,34(3):958-971. DOI:10.18307/2022.0320
Li Jialong,Li Huiyun,Luo Liancong,Gong Falu,Zhang Rufeng,Liu Fenglong,Wu Songtao,Luo Biyu.Water level retrieval for the past and prediction for the next 30 years at Lake Fuxian. J. Lake Sci.2022,34(3):958-971. DOI:10.18307/2022.0320
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抚仙湖历史水位反演与未来30年水位变化预测
李加龙1, 李慧赟2, 罗潋葱3, 龚发露3, 张如枫1, 刘凤龙4, 吴松涛5, 罗碧瑜6
1.云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院, 昆明 650500;2.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008;3.云南大学生态与环境学院高原湖泊生态与治理研究院, 昆明 650500;4.湖南人文科技学院, 娄底 417000;5.浙江省浦江县气象局, 金华 321000;6.广东省梅州市气象局, 梅州 514021
摘要:
在极端气候事件频发和人类活动加剧的背景下,抚仙湖水位波动显著,尤其是2009—2012年极端干旱事件的发生,使抚仙湖平均水位(1721.31 m)低于法定最低水位(1721.65 m),给生态环境安全带来严重威胁.因此,找到合适有效的湖泊水位模拟方法,对气候变化影响下的未来水位进行预测,并做好相应的应对准备,对湖泊生态系统的保护至关重要.本文运用DYRESM水动力模型对抚仙湖1959—2050年水位进行了模拟.因抚仙湖流域尚无长时间序列的历史水文观测数据,故利用模型和水量补偿法对抚仙湖入湖水量进行反推,构建了降水量-入湖水量的回归方程,并通过有效的实测入湖水量和水位数据,对回归方程的精度进行了检验.利用全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR中SSP245和SSP585两种情景提供的未来气候预估数据,运用DYRESM预测了抚仙湖2021—2050年水位变化趋势.结果表明:(1)构建的DYRESM水动力模型和降水-入湖水量回归方程精度较高,模型结果能很好地反映抚仙湖水位的年际和年内变化趋势,且能有效捕捉到抚仙湖的水位峰值.(2)在SSP245和SSP585两种情景下,抚仙湖2021—2050年多年平均水位分别为1722.98和1723.93 m,较1959—2017年平均水位1721.77 m分别升高1.21和2.16 m.两种情景下抚仙湖未来水位均有部分时段超过法定最高蓄水位(1723.35 m),但均高于法定最低水位.因此,未来气候变化对抚仙湖水量的影响有限,并不会导致水位过低,当水位超过法定最高蓄水位时,可通过控制出流闸门将水位调节在合理范围内.
关键词:  抚仙湖|DYRESM模型|高原湖泊|水位预测|CMIP6模式
DOI:10.18307/2022.0320
分类号:
基金项目:云南大学人才引进启动项目(C176220100043)和国家自然科学基金项目(41671205,42171034)联合资助.
Water level retrieval for the past and prediction for the next 30 years at Lake Fuxian
Li Jialong1, Li Huiyun2, Luo Liancong3, Gong Falu3, Zhang Rufeng1, Liu Fenglong4, Wu Songtao5, Luo Biyu6
1.Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, P. R. China;2.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;3.Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, P. R. China;4.Science and Technology, Hunan University of Humanities, Loudi 417000, P. R. China;5.Pujiang Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Jinhua 321000, P. R. China;6.Meizhou Meteorology Bureau of Guangdong Province, Meizhou 514021, P. R. China
Abstract:
With frequent extreme climate events and intensive human activities, the water levels at Lake Fuxian have fluctuated significantly in the past especially during 2009-2010 with an extreme drought. The average water level from 2009 to 2012 was (1721.31 m) lower than the minimum required value (1721.65 m), which caused a great threat to the lake ecosystem. So, it is very important to find an effective method or tool for predicting the water levels under the climate change in the future and to make corresponding adaptation. In this paper, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model (DYRESM) was used to simulate the water levels at Lake Fuxian from 1959 to 2050. Due to lack of observation of inflow volumes, we developed a regression model between inflow and precipitation to produce the missing lake inflows using DYRESM, existing inflow measurements and rainfall. The model was then verified and used to simulate the water levels for 2021-2050 based on rainfall predicted by a global climate model (BCC-CSM2-MR) under Scenario SSP245 and Scenario SSP585. The results show that DYRESM and the regression model had satisfied performance. The average lake water levels from 2021 to 2050 under Scenario SSP245 and Scenario SSP585 were 1722.98 and 1723.93 m respectively, which will be 1.21 and 2.16 m higher than those for 1959 to 2017. The predicted water levels might be intermittently higher than the maximum warning water level (1723.35 m), but will not be lower than the minimum warning water level (1721.65 m). In conclusion, the climate change in the future might have limited impact on the water volume of Lake Fuxian.
Key words:  Lake Fuxian|DYRESM model|plateau lake|water level forecast|CMIP6 model
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