| 引用本文: | 于志慧,刘鹏飞,何玉秀,许有鹏,任晓东,朱立国,徐兴.太湖平原高度城镇化下降雨特征时空变化研究.湖泊科学,2022,34(6):2134-2143. DOI:10.18307/2022.0625 |
| Yu Zhihui,Liu Pengfei,He Yuxiu,Xu Youpeng,Ren Xiaodong,Zhu Liguo,Xu Xing.Temporal and spatial variation of rainfall characteristics under high urbanization in the Lake Taihu Plain. J. Lake Sci.2022,34(6):2134-2143. DOI:10.18307/2022.0625 |
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| 太湖平原高度城镇化下降雨特征时空变化研究 |
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于志慧1, 刘鹏飞1, 何玉秀1, 许有鹏1, 任晓东2, 朱立国3, 徐兴3
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1.南京大学, 南京 210023;2.江苏省水文水资源勘测局苏州分局, 苏州 215011;3.江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局, 无锡 214000
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| 摘要: |
| 随着人类活动和气候变化影响的加剧，降雨特征变化引发的洪水问题日益突出，探讨其时空演变特征对保障高度城镇化地区洪涝安全有较大理论和实际意义.本研究以高度城镇化的太湖平原地区为例，选取降雨强度、降雨历时、降雨集中程度和降雨峰值程度为降雨类型特征指标，以高分辨率短历时加权集合降水资料MSWEP （multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation）为基础探讨了快速城市化发展下（1979—2016年）不同降雨历时-强度-类型的时空演变规律及其演变机制.研究结果表明：①研究区的降雨频次呈现出强度小、历时短、雨量集中于中期和高峰型降雨发生的频次高的特征；同时历时较短、集中于前期和后期的降雨频次趋于增加，而历时较长、集中于中期且中峰型降雨的频次趋于减少.②城镇化对降雨雨型的影响分析发现，高城镇化水平地区较低城镇化水平地区的降雨量更大，其中降雨强度大于25 mm/d的大雨和暴雨事件更易发生；并且更倾向于发生前期型和高峰型的极端分布降雨.随着城镇化发展研究区更易于遭受因降雨量过于集中而导致的雨涝灾害. |
| 关键词: MSWEP降水资料 降雨雨型 城镇化 太湖平原地区 |
| DOI：10.18307/2022.0625 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金-长江水科学研究联合基金项目（U2240203）和江苏省水利科技项目（2021010）联合资助. |
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| Temporal and spatial variation of rainfall characteristics under high urbanization in the Lake Taihu Plain |
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Yu Zhihui1, Liu Pengfei1, He Yuxiu1, Xu Youpeng1, Ren Xiaodong2, Zhu Liguo3, Xu Xing3
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1.Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, P. R. China;2.The Suzhou Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Suzhou 215011, P. R. China;3.The Wuxi Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Wuxi 214000, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| Under the intensification of human activities and the impact of climate change, the flood problem caused by the change of rainfall characteristics is becoming increasingly prominent. This article takes the highly urbanized regions of the Lake Taihu Basin as an example. According to multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) precipitation data, the rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, rainfall concentration degree and rainfall peak degree are selected. The rainfall data from 1979 to 2016 are divided into events to analyze the evolution characteristics of different rainfall duration-intensity-type and its mechanism in the research area. The results are as follows:① The rainfall frequency in the core regions of Lake Taihu under elevated urbanization shows that rain with low rainfall intensity, short rainfall duration, concentrated in mid-term and with higher peaks occurs more commonly. The number of short duration rainfalls, early- and late-term rainfalls show an upward trend, and the number of long and extra-long duration rainfalls, medium-term rainfalls, and moderate peak rainfalls show a downward trend. ② Based on the analysis of the impact of urbanization on rainfall patterns, the rainfall in areas with high urbanization levels is larger than that in the areas with low urbanization levels. It is more likely to occur heavy rainfall events with rainfall intensity greater than 25 mm/d in high urbanization level areas. Compared with the low urbanization level area rainfall, the high urbanization level area rainfall is more inclined to occur the extreme distribution rainfall such as early and high peak rainfall. Suffering a flood event caused by excessive concentration of rainfall is more possible with the development of urbanization in the study area. |
| Key words: MSWEP precipitation data rainfall characteristics urbanization Lake Taihu Plain region |
