|
| 引用本文: | 陈峻琳,温天福,李国芳,肖勇,张静文,鲁翔宇.土地利用变化和水库调控对洪水过程的影响——以赣江上游平江流域为例.湖泊科学,2025,37(2):612-626. DOI:10.18307/2025.0242 |
| Chen Junlin,Wen Tianfu,Li Guofang,Xiao Yong,Zhang Jingwen,Lu Xiangyu.Effects of land use change and reservoir operation on flood process: A case study of Pingjiang River Basin in the upper Ganjiang River. J. Lake Sci.2025,37(2):612-626. DOI:10.18307/2025.0242 |
|
| |
|
|
| 本文已被：浏览 831次 下载 292次 |
码上扫一扫！ |
|
|
| 土地利用变化和水库调控对洪水过程的影响——以赣江上游平江流域为例 |
|
陈峻琳1，2，温天福1，3，李国芳2，肖勇1，张静文1，3，鲁翔宇1，4
|
|
1.江西省水利科学院，南昌 330029 ；2.河海大学水文水资源学院，南京 210098 ；3.水旱灾害防御江西省重点实验室，南昌 330029 ；4.南昌工程学院水利工程学院，南昌 330029
|
|
| 摘要: |
| 1980s以来土地利用变化及水库调控作用对赣江上游洪水形成过程产生了较大影响，解析洪水过程对下垫面变化的响应对防洪减灾意义重大。本文以赣江上游平江流域为例，根据下垫面差异将1981—2021年划分为1981—1992年、2000—2010年、2011—2021年3个时期，分别记为85时期、05时期及20时期，采用情景分析法设置不同时期土地利用和水库调控情景，通过构建MIKE SHE模型并模拟各种情景下的洪水过程，进一步分析土地利用变化及水库调控对洪峰、洪量及峰现时间的影响程度。结果表明：85时期至20时期，平江流域草地、耕地分别减少3.49%和1.72%，林地、建设用地分别增加3.98%和1.41%。受土地利用变化的影响，20时期对比85时期洪水过程洪峰减少6.14%、洪量减少7.03%，峰现时间延后1.5 h，洪峰、洪量、峰现时间在下垫面变化的影响中分别占48%、50%及51%；水库调控对洪水过程发挥削峰错峰作用，洪峰降低6.60%，洪量减少5.72%，峰现时间增加12.29%，在洪峰、洪量及峰现时间变化中的贡献度分别为52%、50%及49%。土地利用变化一定程度上降低洪峰和洪量，而峰现时间延迟程度存在明显差异，其中大洪水、中洪水响应程度低于小洪水，与用地扩张及植被覆盖增长的土地利用转换机制有关；在水库调控影响下，大洪水洪峰和洪量敏感性最强，中洪水次之，小洪水相对弱，大、中、小洪水峰现时间都有延迟但相差不大。本研究分析了水库调控与土地利用变化对洪水过程的影响程度，可为流域洪水预报提供科学参考。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用变化 水库调控 洪水过程 MIKE SHE 平江流域 赣江上游 |
| DOI：10.18307/2025.0242 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52169001)；水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022010)；国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206002)；江西省水利科技项目(202426ZDKT33, 202325ZDKT14) 联合资助 |
|
| Effects of land use change and reservoir operation on flood process: A case study of Pingjiang River Basin in the upper Ganjiang River |
|
Chen Junlin1，2，Wen Tianfu1，3，Li Guofang2，Xiao Yong1，Zhang Jingwen1，3，Lu Xiangyu1，4
|
|
1.Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering, Nanchang 330029 , P.R.China ；2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 , P.R.China ；3.Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Flood and Drought Distaster Defense, Nanchang 330029 , P.R.China ；4.School of Hydraulic and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330029 , P.R.China
|
| Abstract: |
| Due to land use change and reservoir operation, the flood process has been greatly affected in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River Basin since the 1980s. It is of great significance to analyze the influence of land use change and reservoir operation on the flood process in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River. Taking the Pingjiang River Basin in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River as an example, based on different underlying surface conditions, this study divided the watershed land use from 1981 to 2021 into 1981-1992, 2000-2010 and 2011-2021, recorded as 85 period, 05 period, and 20 period, respectively, used scenario analysis to create land use and reservoir operation scenarios for these three periods. The flood process was simulated using MIKE SHE under various scenarios, effects of land use change and reservoir operation on flood peak, flood volume, and peak time were further analyzed. Results showed that from 1985 to 2020, the proportion of grassland and cultivated land decreased by 3.49% and 1.72%, respectively, while forest land and construction land increased by 3.98% and 1.41% in proportion, respectively. Under such condition, the flood peak and volume for 2020 decreased by 6.14% and 7.03%, respectively, compared with those for 1985, and the peak time was delayed by 1.5 h, which accounted for 48%, 50%, and 51% of the effects of the changes in the underlying surface. Due to the effect of reservoir operation on the flood process, the flood peak and volume decreased by 6.60% and 5.72%, respectively, while the peak time increased by 12.29%, contributing to 52%, 50% and 49% of the changes in the flood peak, flood volume and peak time, respectively. Furthermore, the results showed that the flood peak and volume were reduced to a certain extent due to land use change, but the delay degree of peak time was different. The effects of major and medium flood events were lower than those of minor flood events, which related to the land use cover machanism of land expansion and vegetation cover growth. Under the influence of reservoir operation, the peak and volume of major flood events were more sensitive than those of medium flood events, whereas those of minor flood events were relatively insensitive, and the peak time of these flood events was delayed. This study analyzed the impact of reservoir operation and land use change on the flood process, which can provide a scientific basis for watershed flood forecasting. |
| Key words: Land use change reservoir operation flood process MIKE SHE Pingjiang River Basin upper Ganjiang River |
|
|
|
|
